🔍 Read the full analysis: The Field-to-Office Spectrum Of Jobs on ThorstenMeyerAI.com
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TL;DR
ThorstenMeyerAI.com launched “Work After Work,” a 60-episode series on how economies and jobs change, beginning with the three-sector model: primary, secondary and tertiary work. Its opening episode documents the long decline in farming’s share of employment and the rise of services, while presenting a possible automation sector as the author’s thesis, not an established outcome.
ThorstenMeyerAI.com published the first episode of “Work After Work,” a planned 60-episode series about how work shifts as economies develop and machines take on more tasks. The opening installment uses the three-sector model—work that takes resources from nature, makes goods, or provides services—to explain a long-term change in employment: farming’s share of the U.S. labor force fell from an estimated 73.7% in 1800 to 12.0% in 1950, while the International Labour Organization’s modelled estimate for 2025 is 1.5%.
The episode describes the primary sector as activities that draw on nature, including farming, fishing and forestry; the secondary sector as manufacturing, construction and energy; and the tertiary sector as services such as trade, transport, health, education and government. The categories are useful for tracking broad changes in employment, the author says, but can be blurry: a software engineer working for a carmaker may be classified differently across statistical systems.
The U.S. figures cited for 1800 through 1950 come from economic historian Stanley Lebergott’s estimates, published in the Census Bureau’s 1975 Historical Statistics of the United States. The more recent 2025 figure is an ILO modelled estimate. The episode also reports that services have employed more people worldwide than farming since 2001, based on ILO modelled estimates.
The article compares other countries’ employment shifts. It says China’s primary-sector share fell from 83.5% in 1952 to 22.2% in 2024, and Japan’s census recorded a fall from 53.8% in 1920 to 3.2% in 2020. These national figures use different periods and sources, so they illustrate separate country histories rather than a single directly comparable series.
How Sector Shifts Reshape Work
The sector model gives readers a way to understand why a steep decline in farm employment does not mean that food production or the population vanished. Rather, workers moved into other activities as economies changed. The article presents this movement—from farm work to industry and services—as a central pattern in economic development, while showing that the pace and timing differ across countries.
The distinction also matters in debates about technology and jobs. The episode recounts Jean Fourastié’s argument that services could absorb workers displaced as machines raised industrial productivity. That is a historical economic argument, not proof that future technological change will create enough suitable jobs for everyone affected. The series says it will return to that question as it examines machinery and newer technologies.
The author also challenges the claim that the United States “doesn’t make things anymore.” According to the episode, U.S. factory employment is about 35% below its June 1979 peak, while real manufacturing output in 2025 was about 1.9 times its 1979 level. The figures distinguish a fall in manufacturing employment from a fall in manufacturing production; they do not, by themselves, explain the causes or distribution of those changes.
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The Three-Sector Model’s Origins
The three-sector framework took shape in the first half of the 20th century. The episode credits New Zealand economist Allan G. B. Fisher with adding “tertiary” to the existing primary and secondary categories in work written in 1934 and published in 1935. Fisher later described a pattern in which employment shifted out of primary activities and into industry and services.
Economist Colin Clark compared employment across countries in The Conditions of Economic Progress, published in 1940. He described movement from agriculture to manufacturing and then to commerce and services, and observed that industry’s share of employment could peak and later decline. In 1949, French economist Jean Fourastié argued that services would take in workers released by technological progress in industry. Those ideas provide historical context for the series; they do not settle how present-day automation will affect employment.
“within a decade or a few decades, automation could become a sector of its own, doing up to 90% of the work with no human hand.”
— Thorsten Meyer, author of the episode
Limits of the Employment Forecast
The article’s historical figures come from different sources and methods: Lebergott’s estimates, census data and ILO modelled estimates. The episode does not provide the full definitions or underlying calculations for every figure, and sector boundaries can vary, particularly for activities such as mining and technology work. Those differences limit direct comparisons across countries and time periods.
The proposed automation sector is Meyer’s forecast, not a measured employment category or established prediction. The episode does not set out a method for estimating the claim that automation could perform up to 90% of work, nor does it specify which jobs, tasks or timeframe that estimate would cover. It remains unclear how future automation will affect total employment, the kinds of jobs available or the pace of any shift between sectors.
The Series Turns to Automation
“Work After Work” is planned as a daily series of 60 episodes on how the economy is built, how work has moved and which tasks may remain human as machines take on more of them. The first episode establishes the field–factory–office framework for later installments on technologies such as tractors and chatbots.
Meyer says Episode 48 will examine his automation-sector thesis. The source does not give a publication schedule for that episode or describe what evidence it will use to assess the forecast. Until then, the thesis should be read as a question the series intends to test, not a confirmed description of the labor market.
Key Questions
What is the field-to-office spectrum?
It is a shorthand for the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors: work drawing on natural resources, work making goods, and service work. “Field, factory and office” is an accessible summary, though each sector includes many kinds of jobs.
Stanley Lebergott’s historical estimates put farming at 73.7% of the U.S. labor force in 1800 and 12.0% in 1950. The episode cites an ILO modelled estimate of 1.5% for 2025; the figures come from different sources and methods.
Does the article say the United States no longer manufactures goods?
No. It says U.S. factory employment is about 35% below its June 1979 peak, while real manufacturing output in 2025 was about 1.9 times its 1979 level. Employment and output measure different things.
Is automation already a separate economic sector?
No. The proposed automation sector is the author’s thesis. The episode offers no established sector classification or confirmed forecast that automation will perform up to 90% of work.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
